2019年4月28日 (日)

Dealing with Losses on my MLB System

At the moment my baseball strategy is going through a very poor run on the 27th of May to level stakes the system was sitting at +15.14 points and to my now preferred fixed profit staking +22.29 pts.

Since then the system has thrown up 47 bets with only 13 winners and 34 losses. The profit and loss now reads -3.60 pts to level stakes and +3.43 points to fixed profit staking a loss of 18.74 pts and 18.86 points respectively.

I went through a similar spell last year when I went from +17.56 to -0.42 pts. Last year it really tested my resilience and the same is true of this run.

Obviously I am continuing to re-evaluate the system that I am building but the fact remains that this season has not been a season for odds on favourites losing at home as in previous seasons.

When faced with a run such as this it is important that you are correctly capitalised and that you are working from your betting bank. It is also important that you do not make drastic changes to your approach and that you have the discipline to follow your strategy through and most importantly you do not start taking silly risks like increasing your bet size to recuperate your losses in a shorter timescale.

The hardest part of these losing runs for me personally is that I begin to doubt my strategy and I start to become a little despondent. When you look at a run of 13 winners in 47 bets I could not have done any worse just closing my eyes and using a pin to source my selections rather than spending hours recording results against my rating system etc.

However thankfully through time I have learnt to deal with these setbacks as I know that a sport such as baseball can be as streaky as backing black or red on a roulette wheel and the reality of the situation is that I am just going through an extremely abnormal run.

Hopefully normality will return and I will be back in good profit sooner rather than later.

Ultimately my goal here is to build a sound system that will produce a regular return season on season and I believe this can only be done by capturing a few seasons worth of data. However I believe this hard work and patience will ultimately pay off.

Finally I have a couple of additional rules to the system that need to be tried out and tested and I intend to put these out in the public domain probably on Twitter and I shall begin with these from next week

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